摘要：干旱作为一种极端气候事件易波及区域经济的多个层面，商业银行作为区域经济活动的重点关注对象定会受到一定的影响。在此背景下，厘清干旱冲击对地方银行系统性风险的作用逻辑，对维护区域金融稳定、保障乡村振兴具有现实意义。本文选取2008—2024年中国120家地方性商业银行的数据并统计银行所在地的干旱程度数据进行研究，结果显示：(1)干旱冲击会显著加剧商业银行系统性风险的形成与传染，干旱程度越深，区域银行体系脆弱性越高，该结论经多重检验后保持稳定。(2)干旱一方面造成涉农、高耗水行业现金流断裂，推高银行不良贷款，从资产端削弱单家银行抗风险能力；另一方面持续抬升市场整体气候风险感知，引发银行同步收紧信贷、扩张同业业务，放大风险形成与传染效应，两条路径共同构成中介传导渠道。(3)银行资产端流动性创造存在负向调节作用，充足的流动性投放可对冲实体违约冲击、弱化干旱风险；而净利差存在正向调节效应，高净利差银行对干旱敏感行业信贷依赖度更高，风险传染效应更强。(4)大规模银行、城商行、绿色信贷占比更高地区的银行受干旱冲击的影响更大，核心原因在于此类机构同业网络节点地位更高、气候敏感信贷敞口更集中，风险传导速度更快、范围更广。基于上述结论，本文提出分层治理方案：监管部门需搭建气象金融联动预警平台，将干旱风险纳入宏观审慎监管与银行压力测试；银行要完善气候风险全流程信贷管控，利用流动性创造对冲灾害冲击，差异化调整高收益涉农信贷投放；针对不同规模、类型、区域银行实施分类监管，高绿色信贷地区同步配套气候风险补偿基金与巨灾金融工具，阻断干旱向银行系统性风险的传导链条。 

Abstract: As an extreme climatic event, drought ripples across multiple layers of regional economies, and commercial banks, as core participants in regional economic activities, are inevitably exposed to its adverse impacts. Against this backdrop, unpacking the functional logic linking drought shocks to systemic risks of local banks carries practical significance for safeguarding regional financial stability and advancing rural revitalization. Accordingly, this paper collects panel data covering 120 local commercial banks in China from 2008 to 2024, paired with drought severity metrics of the regions where these banks operate. The empirical results are summarized as follows:(1) Drought shocks significantly exacerbate the buildup and cross-institutional contagion of systemic risks in commercial banks; the more severe the drought, the higher the fragility of the regional banking system, and this finding remains robust after a battery of endogeneity and stability tests.(2) Drought operates through two mediating transmission channels. On one hand, it triggers cash flow disruptions in agriculture and high water-consuming industries, driving up banks' non-performing loans and eroding individual banks' risk resistance capacity from the asset side. On the other hand, it elevates the overall market perception of climate risks, prompting banks to synchronously tighten credit supply and expand interbank businesses, which amplifies the formation and contagion of financial risks.(3) Liquidity creation on banks' asset side exerts a negative moderating effect: adequate liquidity injection can offset default risks from the real economy and mitigate drought-induced financial hazards. By contrast, net interest margin plays a positive moderating role. Banks with wider net interest margins rely more heavily on lending to drought-vulnerable sectors, resulting in stronger risk contagion effects.(4) Drought shocks exert more pronounced impacts on large-sized banks, urban commercial banks, and banks operating in regions with a higher proportion of green credit. The underlying reason is that such institutions occupy more central positions in the interbank network and hold more concentrated credit exposures to climate-sensitive sectors, enabling faster and wider transmission of risks.Drawing on the above findings, this paper proposes a tiered governance framework. Regulators should establish an integrated meteorology-finance early warning platform and incorporate drought risks into macroprudential supervision and banks' climate stress tests. Banks need to implement full-process credit risk management for climate hazards, leverage liquidity creation to counteract disaster shocks, and adjust high-yield agriculture-related credit allocation in a differentiated manner. Regulators shall adopt categorized supervision standards tailored to banks of varying sizes, types and geographic locations. Regions with abundant green credit should launch supporting instruments such as climate risk compensation funds and catastrophe financial tools to fully block the transmission chain through which drought evolves into systemic banking risks.