摘要：新产品脱销信息的知晓时间会影响消费者的偏好改变，然而目前相关研究却严重匮乏。基于心理禀赋理论和心理抗拒理论，通过构建有调节的双中介模型深入探查了新产品脱销知晓时间影响消费者偏好改变的内在机理与边界条件，并通过实验法和调查法进行了实证检验。2个实验和1个社会调查的结果表明：（1）新产品脱销知晓时间会系统性地影响消费者的偏好改变，未知新产品脱销较之于已经知晓新产品脱销更容易导致消费者的偏好改变（2）心理禀赋与心理抗拒会共同中介新产品脱销知晓时间对消费者偏好改变的影响，其中当消费者决策前已经知晓新产品脱销时更容易产生心理禀赋，而当其未知时更容易产生心理抗拒；（3）自我控制会调节心理禀赋与心理抗拒双中介效应，即高自我控制更容易让心理禀赋中介效应占优，而低自我控制更容易让心理抗拒中介效应占优。该研究结论不仅对深化和完善新产品脱销等理论有重要意义，而且对于厂商、消费者和监管机构等有重要的管理启示。

Abstract: New products often run out-of-stock, among which when consumers know out-of-stock will gives rise to an important impact on their preference change. Unfortunately, prior work, however, has paid little or no attention and research on it. Base on both mental endowment theory and psychological reactance theory, the article via constructing a model of moderated dual mediators, deeply explored the internal mechanism and boundary conditions underlying the impact of known time for out-of-stock of new products on consumer's preference change, and further empirically tested it by using experimental and survey research methods. Across 2 experiments and 1 survey, their results showed that (1) consumer's known time for out-of-stock of new products would systematically impact consumer's preference change, and however, its direction and strength would depend on mediation mechanism; and (2) both mental endowment and psychological  reactance would jointly mediating the impact of known time for out-of-stock of new products on consumer's preference change; and finally (3) self-control would moderate the mediating effects of mental endowment and psychological reactance, namely high self-control would empower the former a dominant mediator over the latter and contrarily low self-control would empower the latter a dominant mediator over the former. These conclusions have not only important theoretical signification to deepen and enrich such some theories as new product promotion, time perception and preference change and so on, but also have important practical implication to guild businesses to effectively perform out-of-stock management of new products, to help consumers rationally treat out-of-stock of new products and to advise some regulators to regularly govern the out-of-stock phenomenon of new products.