摘要：在全面深化改革、高压问责与强力反腐背景下，基层公务员“不担当、不作为”的避责行为时有发生，已成为制约政府治理效能、损害公共利益与政府公信力的突出问题。现有研究多从制度结构、情境压力等视角展开分析，较少关注避责行为的道德属性，缺乏从伦理决策层面对其发生机理的系统阐释。本研究基于综合伦理决策模型，将升迁停滞界定为威胁基层公务员个人利益与职业发展的关键情境，从道德推脱视角揭示避责行为的生成机制与边界条件，为理解与治理基层避责行为提供新的理论视角。研究以广东省多地236名基层公务员为调研对象，采用三阶段滞后式调查收集数据，使用PROCESS宏程序和分层回归进行中介、调节及被调节的中介效应检验。结果表明:升迁停滞显著正向影响基层公务员避责行为，感知组织剥削与感知与领导关系冲突在二者间起并行中介作用。升迁停滞引发的职业威胁感，会激活公务员的责备归因式道德推脱，使其将晋升受阻归咎于组织剥削或与领导关系冲突，进而为避责行为提供道德合理化依据。同时，晋升欲望发挥显著正向调节作用，个体晋升渴望越强烈，升迁停滞对感知组织剥削、感知与领导关系冲突的诱发效应越强，两条中介路径的作用也随之强化。本研究认为，为减少基层避责行为，政府应构建多元、公正的职业发展支持系统，如完善职级并行、横向交流等机制，降低公务员的威胁感知。同时，加强领导与下属的沟通反馈，帮助其理性看待升迁停滞，矫正归因偏差。尤其应关注“高晋升欲望”群体，通过正向引导、任务授权与心理疏导，将其成就动机转化为积极履职动力，防止其滑向道德推脱与行为消极。 

Abstract: This study investigates “how and when street-level bureaucrats engage in blame avoidance”from an ethical decision-making perspective. Drawing on the integrated ethical decision-making model,the article conceptualizes stagnation of promotion as a threat to personal interests and needs—activates blame attribution,a moral disengagement mechanism that drives blame avoidance. This process is further moderated by promotion aspiration. Through the analysis of 236 lagged survey responses collected from Guangdong,the research findings indicate that stagnation of promotion fosters blame avoidance through two blame attribution pathways: perceived organizational exploitation and perceived relationship conflict with supervisors. Promotion aspiration positively moderates the effects of stagnation of promotion on both mediators and significantly strengthens their indirect effects on blame avoidance. The findings open a new ethical lens for understanding blame avoidance.